The reasons for power outages and curtailment are the imbalance of power supply and demand caused by the strong demand of coal production-restricted industries, and the second is that some regions have strengthened management for reducing production capacity. Measures such as the decline in demand for production and reproduction of industries to alleviate the loss of power supply and demand; for the second reason, the decentralization of policies will continue to affect industrial production restrictions.
From the perspective of the scope of influence, in the short term, the impact of power rationing and production suspension on the production activities of the industrial sector and the manufacturing industry can be seen from the impact of non-production activities. In terms of specific industries, the power curtailment and shutdown will first affect the mining industry, chemical industry, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, metal building materials and other industries. From the recent high-frequency data, the operating rate of blast furnaces, coke oven fire sites, and labor rates continue to be significant. Start construction, show to the building, affect the materials and construction industry, etc.
Taking the operating rate of steel blast furnaces for example, the operating rate at the end of September was 541%, which was about 5.3 percentage points compared with the same period in August. At the end of September, the coke oven area in East China was 38.7%, which was a 37.9 decrease from the accident in August. The overall production restriction of the industry may drag down the industrial added value by 10% month-on-month. According to the proportion of industrial production in GDP, it may drag down the GDP to 7% month-on-month in the short term.
In addition, production restrictions will also push up midstream prices, which will lead to price increases in the future. Therefore, it is foreseeable that production restrictions and winter energy demand will cause PPI to remain high. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the price orientation that will cause CPI to continue to return to the ground. possible.